Divya Delhi : The declining Indian rupee and global commodity prices could affect retail inflation targets, according to Bank of Baroda. The analysis warned that a falling rupee will raise import prices and inflation. The paper also noted that US trade measures like tariffs may raise global commodity prices, which had been falling. These things may boost India's inflation. The research noted that a falling rupee could cause imported inflation and a commodities price cycle bottoming out due to US tariffs. In January 2025, CPI inflation fell to 4.3% from 5.2% in December 2024. A substantial food price correction drove this fall. Food inflation declined 237 bps to 6% in January from 8.4% in December. Vegetable inflation declined from 26.6% in December to 11.3% in January, contributing heavily to this decline. Prices fell due to bumper arrivals of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) since November 2024. Core inflation—excluding food and fuel—remained at 3.6% year-over-year. Core inflation rose to 3.7% excluding pan, tobacco, and intoxicants. Recently, core inflation has been flat, according to the data. However, gold prices rose 33% year-over-year. If volatile components like vegetable prices continue to fall, the Reserve Bank of India's 4% inflation target may be more achievable. However, dangers persist, and global economic conditions will shape India's inflation trajectory.